Daily Trade Insights - Commentary Review

08:23:23 The overnight market is going to gap up this morning
as expected. The overnight low was 1320.00, just below yesterday's close. The high made was 1328.70 on a double top. The close was made shortly after at 1328.50. Double tops often temporarily cap a move up and provide an excellent test for market strength. We also have a trendline up from the overnight low to the 7:30 CST low made just before the push to the high. A trendline break or a move to highs above the double top will help determine the strength of this move up. We will probably stand aside early.

08:30:38 Open Test

08:35:36 Price has moved just above the overnight high but is
having trouble staying above that level. We have the overnight
high at 1330.80, a pivot at 1331.60 and other resistance just
above price. There is support at 1325.00.

08:38:42 Price has broken the overnight up trendline.

08:46:01 We considered sell the move back up to 1327 on the
basis of the trendline break but price was just below the 30M average and we expected some noise. Price is now just above the 60M average (1324.20). Expect some cycling here.

08:48:57 *Price is in consolidation.

08:55:09 Price should continue higher here.

09:00:13 Price should continue higher here. *Volume
characteristics make this a very high risk short. Price action is
choppy with no follow-through. This is typical price action around
the longer term moving averages, especially when there is a lot
of support resistance levels nearby.

09:10:25 This is a market we do not want to trade. There is no
momentum. A large order from a commercial could reverse this
market sufficiently to hit our tight stops. We will wait.

09:12:51 We have a number of oscillators and internals with
positive divergences. Expect the trend to shift up here. A move
down on low volume will confirm this.

09:19:45 This market looks like it is going down. There was a
great deal of buying at the 9:08 CST 5M bar but then it dried up.
The Nasdaq was suppose to move up strongly but is struggling.

09:30:35 We want to see another move up but are probably not
going to get it. There is a pivot at 1320.90. We would short a
bounce from there.

09:34:11 No bounce, just a pause that we almost shorted but the
premium is substantially depressed.

09:42:56 We, as many traders, have difficulty entering moves
like that. One expects a retracement that never comes and misses the whole move. The first retracement is usually a reversal or consolidation and one usually gets stopped out. In this case, the TICKs are at -1000 and a short entry here would be very treacherous. We will wait.

09:49:41 We should get a retest down now. We will buy a failure.

09:56:33 Here is the attempted re-test of the bottom.

10:11:19 That was about a scratch trade, depending on fill. The
selloff will continue.

10:13:48 This is probably the buy here.

10:19:07 There is lots of selling volume here.

10:32:41 Our entry was premature. The 5M average should reverse price.

10:36:47 Our indications are that the trend has turned up.

10:38:24 Our indications are that the trend has turned up. *We
want to see another push down first.

10:55:01 Expect a move back down here.

11:07:22 We will see if price can remain above the overnight low.

11:17:36 We will see if price can remain above the overnight low.
*There is pivot resistance at 1320.90 and yesterday's close was
at 1321.80.

11:25:59 We will see if price can remain above the overnight
low. *There is pivot resistance at 1320.90 and yesterday's close was at 1321.80. **This price action is choppy and noisy. We will
wait.

11:32:37 Expect price to move down.

11:35:16 We will consider a buy on a move above 1322.00.

11:39:28 The Nasdaq and the Dow are both down 13. The Dow has upside potential.

12:10:22 That trade worked well depending on how quickly you
entered. The 1 minute bar after our entry was a 2.00 point bar
and your results on that trade will depend greatly on your fill.
All should be profitable though.

12:15:00 It appears the downtrend has resumed.

12:20:38 That was a fast move down. We may short the retracement off of the support levels around 1320.

12:28:19 This is not a low risk short here. We will wait.

12:32:52 Price is forming a large triangle on the 30M chart.
Price has come off of the top of the triangle and is moving down.
Retracements to the upside can probably be safely shorted here.

12:37:21 Price is forming a large triangle on the 30M chart.
Price has come off of the top of the triangle and is moving down.
Retracements to the upside can probably be safely shorted here.
*We are probably going to get a larger than normal retracment now back up.

12:56:23 The Nasdaq looks like it is about to break its large
triangle to the downside. The Dow though not in a triangle,
appears about to break a trendline up from its lows. We will
wait.

13:10:39 If we do not get a sharp move down soon, we will cover
the remaining contracts.

13:14:52 We did a little better than scratch on that.

13:15:45 Price should move down from here.

13:48:25 We brought our stop down tight because of the premium - cash divergence. We may re-enter this market.

13:59:44 The bonds are up almost 3/4 of a point. The S&Ps are
still at the bottom portion but inside of its triangle. The
Nasdaq has of course broken out of the bottom and is at -31. We
will wait.

14:08:12 We missed re-entering because we lost our datafeed on
the retracement. The S&Ps are at the bottom of their triangle.
Expect a bounce that we will attempt to short.

14:15:43 Our stop is at 1316.50 due to positive slippage on
entry.

14:33:03 Excellent trade with positive slippage on both ends.
Trade of the day!

14:42:01 Nasdaq down 93, Dow down 192. We wanted to re-short but had trouble finding an entry. This move could accelerate even more.

14:45:53 We wanted to re-short but had trouble finding an
entry. This move could accelerate even more. *This market could break very hard here in the next 15 minutes. Consider overnight holds if you have the account size and risk tolerance.

14:48:16 It will be interesting to see if there is a short
covering rally and to what extent the market will bounce, if any,
from the lows.

14:58:47 There is big volume coming in to support the Dow. The
Nasdaq simply ran out of buyers.

15:03:30 Expect the S&Ps to move essentially sideways to down
here.

15:06:12 Expect the S&Ps to move essentially sideways to down
here. It appears the short covering rally was probably met by new
overnight shorting.

15:15:17 Market Closed