Commentary Review - September 13, 1999 08:26:42 We did extensive testing this weekend of our entry system and found some technical problems with the way our data coming in was interfacing with our entry algorithm. The problem has been overcome and all systems are again nominal. Today we will issue commentary and indicate entry points but today's trading will not go on the 'official' results. The overnight market has moved down, as expected. This market made a hard triple bottom at 1358.00 and moved higher to close at 1363.00. We expect this market to probably move slightly higher before selling off to again find support at the 1358.00 to 1359.00 level. 08:35:14 Price is just at Friday's low. Expect price to go into consolidation here until the 1M average (1366.40) moves into proximity of the price action. 08:41:57 Price is attempting to move above the 1362.00 pivot number and Friday's low of 1362.00. Fair value today is 1648. 08:44:51 Price is attempting to move above the 1362.00 pivot number and Friday's low of 1362.00. Fair value today is 1648. *Price is just below the 60M average (1365.00) and just aboce the 120M average (1360.00). Expect cycling between these two levels and further consolidation. 08:56:15 Price has formed a double top on the 1M charts; expect price to move down, below Friday's low. 09:06:56 Price is firmly in consolidation here; price may break out in either direction, though there is a bias to the upside at this time. 09:08:21 Price is firmly in consolidation here; price may break out in either direction, though there is a bias to the upside at this time. *Price should move down here under the influence of the 5M average. This a good shorting opportunity. 09:14:50 That was a very weak move down under the influence of the 5M average. Expect two more probable cycles down and a stronger move up. 09:20:01 That was a very weak move down under the influence of the 5M average. Expect two more probable cycles down and a stronger move up. *Price is having a difficult time moving through the early consolidation area from Friday morning (the midpoint is 1365 to 1366). 09:22:49 Price is at the downtrend line from Friday afternoon. We expect cycling between the 30M average (1366.80) and the 60M average (1364.90). 09:26:54 Price is at the downtrend line from Friday afternoon. We expect cycling between the 30M average (1366.80) and the 60M average (1364.90). We show the possibility of a selloff here on the 15M chart. With so many longer term averages so close to price action, the crosscurrents are many. Direction is very difficult to analyze here. Our entry system is neutral to slightly bearish longer term. We will wait. 09:37:19 Price is in the consolidation zone from early Friday. The difference here is that most of the longer term average are above the price action than below. Expect cycling and a move down. (Price did not or could not cycle between the 30M and 60M average.) 09:43:50 This move up can be shorted. 09:47:12 This move up can be shorted. *This move down should be extended. This is another shorting opportunity here. 09:50:54 This move up can be shorted. *This move down should be extended. This is another shorting opportunity here. **Price should move at least to the overnight low at 1358.00. 09:54:05 Price should continue back down here. 09:56:48 Price should continue back down here. *This move should carry to 1358 and probably lower. 10:01:06 Price should continue back down here. *This move should carry to 1358 and probably lower. **We are getting volume support from the 120M average. This short has become 50-50. Should price break however, the move down will be very fast. 10:15:22 Price is forming another consolidation zone here fom which it should move higher. 10:21:34 Price is forming another consolidation zone here fom which it should move higher. *Should price not make an impulse move up here, the move down will continue. 10:27:00 Should price move below 1358.80 with followthrough, price will be below the apex of our long term triangle on the daily charts. Price could move down rapidly from this point. 10:39:44 Price has moved below the overnight low and critical support at 1359.00. Expect lower prices to come soon. This is a good shorting opportunity if price can remain below the overnight low. *Expect price to continue cascading down with a cycling consolidation zone between the moves down. The price moves down should accelerate if the selloff is to continue. 11:04:33 Price was reversed at the overnight low and has moved persistently higher. A move above 1362.50 will want to see us long. 11:13:23 This is a good shorting point. 11:14:51 Our entry system has just given us a buy at this point. 11:24:03 Our entry system has just given us a buy at this point. *There is considerable support at 1362.50. Expect price to move higher. 11:30:30 Price needs to move above 1362.50 within a minute or two or this buy is invalidated. 11:41:20 Price is below Friday's low again. Price should move with direction momentarily. 11:47:52 Price is back in consolidation here. We will wait. 11:57:09 Expect a move down soon. The TRIN has been moving higher since 9:20 CST. Any longs should be exited. 12:03:38 Price is again cycling between the 60M and 120M moving averages. 12:14:19 Here is our expected move down. It must move below its current 1360.20 low with the next minute bar or we should have a reversal. 12:23:33 The 12:10 CST 5M bar shows very reduced volume. Yet when price moves down, there is supporting volume. This defines a consolidation, in part, for us. The commercial interests are buying the dips. This would normally indicate accumulation. They could also be hedging a short portfolio. 12:26:49 The Nasdaq is 29 points down from its record highs and setup to selloff more. The Dow at -8 looks poised to move higher however in the short term. 12:26:49 The Nasdaq is 29 points down from its record highs and setup to selloff more. The Dow at -8 looks poised to move higher however in the short term. 12:37:26 All of the indexes are participating in this move up and the bonds are showing strength as well. The Dow and S&P appear to have run out of volume on the move up. 12:44:17 The Nasdaq moved little and is showing continued weakness. The Dow is showing some strength. The S&Ps are almost exactly between these other indexes in terms of strength/weakness. This is a floor trader's market here. 12:45:13 Expect a move up here. 12:47:45 Price remains in consolidation but is showing weakness. 12:52:43 Most of this price movement is the result of the floor traders pushing the premium around. 12:54:20 It appears price is forming a triangle. Expect price to move back up here and probably move higher out of the triangle. 13:05:46 The bonds are moving up, expect the S&Ps to follow. 13:07:01 The bonds have just had a very nasty reversal, trapping many longs. 13:14:20 Price is cycling between the 15M and 120M averages. 13:17:45 Price is just above a 7 day up trendline from the 9/2 low. Expect price to move higher here. 13:20:11 Price has broken the trendline and is accelerating down. Expect support at the overnight low and at the 1354.50 pivot. There could be a good short at either point on a hesitation. 13:23:39 Price has broken the trendline and is accelerating down. Expect support at the overnight low and at the 1354.50 pivot. There could be a good short at either point on a hesitation. We again have volume coing in to support price. Lower volume on a retracement here would be a low risk short. 13:26:40 On the 3M chart, compare the volume characteristics of the move off of the bottom at 10:38 CST with the move off of the bottom now. If the volume continues to decline, expect a continuation in the move down. 13:33:32 There is probably no short here. The move back up was associated with increasing volume and sufficient momentum to invalidate the short. Further movement down here could result in a large move because of a substantial difference in opinion with large volume to fuel the move. 13:36:36 This is a good buy point. 13:43:48 This is a good buy point. *Price may go into consolidation here before moving higher. 13:45:30 This is a good buy point. *Price may go into consolidation here before moving higher. **Taking partial profits and moving your stop closer is advisable here. 13:51:36 There is substial overhead resistance here at 1361.00 (Friday's low) and at 1362.50. Movement above these levels would indicate a longer term hold. 13:58:11 A move above 1362.50 could see a fast move up. 14:06:15 Price has moved back down. Expect price to form a consolidation zone here. 14:25:35 Price has moved back down. Expect price to form a consolidation zone here. *Expect price to continue cycling. Any deviation from the norm hould be viewed with suspicion. 14:34:58 Price should continue higher here if it does not form a triangle. 14:54:15 Price has formed a very narrow range day that should remain so into the close. This will put us in breakout mode for tomaorrow. Our entry system was right on today, with 3 winners out of 3 trades. 15:04:44 We are expecting a gap up on the open tomorrow. 15:14:49 Market Closed